2026 Texas Real Estate Forecast: What Buyers and Sellers Should Expect

Texas real estate is expected to grow modestly in 2026, not take off like the pandemic market. The Texas Real Estate Research Center forecasts single-family home sales rising about 2.5 percent to roughly 349,000 sales, with the statewide median price increasing about 1.3 percent to around $334,000 by year-end.

For buyers in Dripping Springs, Austin, Wimberley, Blanco, Lakeway, and the Texas Hill Country, that points to a more balanced market. TRERC has also noted elevated inventory pressure and mortgage rates expected to stay near the 6 percent range, which usually means buyers may have more options and a little more negotiating room than they had a few years ago.

For sellers, this is not a market where you can ignore price, prep, and presentation. Texas REALTORS reported the statewide Q1 2026 median home price was lower than the same quarter the year before, even though some metros still saw price gains. In the Hill Country, land, acreage, and custom homes can still perform well, but buyers are more careful. The clean takeaway is this: 2026 looks like a steadier Texas market with modest growth, more inventory, and less room for sloppy pricing.

If you are looking at land, acreage, or custom home property in the Texas Hill Country, you can learn more at https://chrispesek.com, email chris@drippingspringshometeam.com, or call 512-736-1703. Chris Pesek is a Texas Hill Country Realtor specializing in land, acreage, and custom homes. He has helped hundreds of clients across Central Texas and is recognized as a Top 2 Percent Producer with dozens of five-star reviews.

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